Navigate trends with confidence and peace of mind

TrendCompass reports deliver daily trend following signals for investors, traders and hedgers, covering some 200 financial and commodities markets.

TrendCompass is powered by the I-System© whose reliability and effectiveness have been proven through daily use since 2003 and a stellar performance track record in the hedge funds industry.

Market trends are the most powerful drivers of investment performance and systematic trend following is the most reliable way to profit from trends sustainably.

CUTTING THROUGH THE INFORMATION OVERLOAD 

Financial industry generates thousands of research reports each and every day, an overwhelming glut of information. Instead of adding to your reading pile, we analyze market trends and deliver the final product of our research: clear, actionable decisions you can digest in seconds, not minutes per day.

REAL-TIME CTA INTELLIGENCE

For decades, commodities trading advisors (CTAs) have used sy​stematic trend following as one of the best strategies in active investment trading. Institutions like Nomura, JPMorgan and Rabobank pay close attention to CTAs. Understanding CTA strategies “can provide a strong edge in today’s highly systematized markets.” TrendCompass delivers this edge – effectively, reliably and in real time!

I-System: probably the best model of its kind

We generate our reports with the I-System. The product of more than 20 years of passionate and uncompromising obsession with quality, I-System’s track record in hedge fund management from 2007 to 2019 delivered consistent benchmark outperformance, including against an index of world’s leading, blue-chip CTAs (audited).

Delivering quality decision support every trading day

A reliable and effective trends auto-pilot provides invaluable decision-support. Even only as a ‘reality check’ or a source of ‘second opinion’ to market analysts, TrendCompass gives you the guidance to navigate the markets profitably, confidently and with a peace of mind.

Profit from trends – through bull and bear markets!

A typical I-System strategy shows up-trends in blue and downtrends in red. Onset of a down-trend is a signal to reduce or hedge your market exposure. It is equally important to know when to start adding to your exposure again. During the 2008 bear market, I-System achieved a 27% positive net return. The authenticity of these results was audited by KPMG.

What some of our clients say

Our clients enjoy the sober, consistent quality decision support they get from TrendCompass… Here are a few testimonials from professional and non-professional investors:

I-System: probably the best model of its kind

The reports are powered by the I-System©, whose reliability and performance was proven through daily use since 2003. In fact, we believe that I-System is probably the best trend following model ever built. This is a bold claim – but not a hollow one (click here to see why).

What is the I-System?

I-System comprises a dual neural network of mathematical algorithms that codify a body of knowledge in market analysis and trading.

This robust architecture enables I-System to track thousands of intelligent trading strategies in any security market, generating consistent trading signals with zero loss of quality or focus. Its versatility enables the I-System to simultaneously track long-, short-, and medium-term trends and deploy multiple strategies in any market. This in turn dramatically reduces the model risk often associated with lesser quantitative models.

What we are after: large-scale price events (LSPEs)

Trend following has proven as one of the most effective investment strategies since the 1970s. That is not to say that it is easy to put in practice. For one thing, trend following can be counterintuitive: while we are naturally inclined to buy low and sell high, trend following entails the opposite – buying securities after their prices have risen and selling them as prices decline. Trend following also requires a great deal of patience and discipline. A good case in point was our experience trading crude oil in 2019/20:

During the oil price collapse in early 2020, I-System strategies generated a profit of $42.45 per barrel, simply through adherence to time-tested set of rules that define how we react to price fluctuations in the market.

The chart above fairly illustrates the nature of trend following: through the entirely unforeseen oil price collapse in the early 2020, I-System strategies generated a profit of over $42/bbl ($42,000 per single crude oil contract) in only two month’s time. However, during the previous 8 months they mostly traded in the negative territory. This is part of the process. The chart below shows our crude oil strategies over a longer time interval:

To profit from a price trend, we need to be in the right position at the right time. This involves risk and incurring some losses until a price trend takes off. But when trends do unfold, the windfalls can be very substantial. Think of prices of Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, or stocks like AMZN, TSLA, MSFT and many others. Whatever you may think about the valuation of those assets, their price appreciation (or decline) invariably unfolded as trends that spanned months or even years, richly rewarding those who were correctly positioned to profit them.

I-System is about long-term reliability, not short-term gimmicks

Many investors would like to find some gimmick providing instant trading gratification and risk-free profits. This desire is met with a flood of offers promising large investment returns, risk-free trading, 80% accurate forecasts, etc. Unfortunately, almost without exception these claims will prove false. This, in part, is the reason why most retail investors lose.

The reasons for poor performance are many but they usually come down to short-term focus, investing with a poorly formulated strategy or no strategy at all and trading too frequently. As Benjamin Graham put it, “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

Achieve life-long success at investing!

The great news is that with a well formulated, effective strategy and discipline you can turn your investing into a life-long success that will steadily enhance your wealth and your quality of life with less stress and with peace of mind. While you’ll have to supply the discipline yourself, we will provide the dependable and effective decision support for your investing thanks to I-System Trend Following and our TrendCompass reports.

In investing, performance is a long-term process

Since the start of our track record in 2007, I-System has consistently outperformed the relevant strategy benchmarks, including world’s top ranked, Blue Chip Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs).

Below is the most recent performance summary of our Major Markets portfolio: 180 trend following strategies covering 15 key global markets including main equity indices, treasury futures, energy, metals, and FX pairs.

A well-diversified trend following portfolio is a robust diversifier; importantly, it provides a non-correlated source of returns as we saw in 2022 and also during the 2020 market turmoil. In both cases, Major Markets portfolio has diverged from adverse trends in stocks and bonds markets.

The chart below illustrates the performance attribution for each of the 15 markets included in the Major Markets portfolio (excluding Bitcoin) on an approximately equal risk-weighting basis:

There’s a lot to read into the above chart. For example, we can see the assymetry between the downside and the upside: while our negative performing markets (with the exception of German bund) are all above 50, the upside has reached above 300. We can also see that the ‘negative cohort’ are becoming more closely packed below breakeven.

Given that the above performance isn’t based on a backtest simulation, but on the signals communicated in real time since January 2020, they are the perfect illustration of the effectiveness of trend following. The strategy certainly requires a great deal of discipline and patience, but over the long term it is reliable and remarkably versatile, allowing investors to trade and profit in many markets even if they otherwise know little about them, both through bull and bear cycles.

A PDF report below details the performance of all 180 strategies in charts, through July 2024:

DOWNLOAD

Again, the above performance review is the result of actual trading signals communicated to subscribers in real time – it is not a backtest simulation.

What you get

Daily e-mail summary

Your daily e-mail summarizes the changes in directional exposure based on previous trading session. An intuitive bar chart shows the recommended exposure so that you can grasp it at a glance.

The reports also include a brief commentary that complements our systematic trend following signals. Primarily, the commentary aims to share important educational content about trading and risk management. In addition, the commentary seeks to spotlight sporadic trading opportunities.

TrendCompass report summary page

The report summary page provides a one-page exposure dashboard for all the markets included in a report. It lists the previous session’s closing prices, the number of strategies used to track each market, their previous exposure (%long or short), the day’s changes and the exposure after the day’s trades:

Detailed breakdown by market and strategy

Customized portfolios

We can customize reports for clients who wish to track a different selection of markets, a larger number of strategies, or follow a particular selection of strategies (for example, a preference for short-cycle trends). We’ll seek to accommodate any such request. A one-time 1,200 Euros setup fee may apply for customized portfolios.